Predicting Success in Grade 2 Through Structured Reading Intervention Response in a School District in the Philippines
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.69569/jip.2026.423Keywords:
Curriculum-based measurement, Grade 2 learners, Oral reading fluency, Rate of improvement, Reading interventionAbstract
Reading proficiency in the early grades can shape later academic success, yet many Filipino learners struggle with foundational reading skills. While structured interventions can improve performance, less is known about whether early progress can predict who will eventually catch up to grade-level expectations. This one-group pretest–posttest study with predictive analyses examined whether early Rate of Improvement (ROI) during a structured reading intervention predicted final reading proficiency among 85 struggling Grade 2 learners in North Bauang District, La Union, Philippines. It also identified which reading sub-skills best predicted remediation success. Learners showed significant gains across phonemic awareness, phonics/decoding, oral reading fluency, and reading comprehension (Cohen's d = 1.67–2.23, p < .001). Grade-level proficiency was defined independently of the intervention progress-monitoring data, using the Grade 2 Standards-Based Reading Proficiency Measure (G2-SRPM), a criterion-referenced assessment administered at posttest. Of the 85 learners who began below grade level, 53 (62.4%) reached grade-level proficiency after the intervention. Early overall ROI was strongly associated with final reading proficiency (r = .82, p < .001) and proficiency status (r = .74, p < .001). The four sub-skills jointly explained 72% of the variance in final proficiency (R² = .72, p < .001). Oral reading fluency was the strongest predictor (β = .41, p < .001), followed by phonics/decoding (β = .35, p < .001), phonemic awareness (β = .18, p = .012), and reading comprehension (β = .15, p = .034). ROC analysis identified an overall ROI cut score of 4.25 points per week (AUC = .89, sensitivity = .86, specificity = .82). Oral reading fluency ROI showed the highest diagnostic accuracy (AUC = .91), with a cut score of 2.85 WCPM per week. These findings suggest that early progress monitoring can identify learners who need more targeted support.
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